Segmentation-based modeling for advanced targeted marketing

Abstract

Fingerhut Business Intelligence (BI) has a long and successful history of building statistical models to predict consumer behavior. The models constructed are typically segmentationbased models in which the target audience is split into subpopulations (i.e., customer segments) and individually tailored statistical models are then developed for each segment. Such models are commonly employed in the direct-mail industry; however, segmentation is often performed on an ad-hoc basis without directly considering how segmentation affects the accuracy of the resulting segment models. Fingerhut BI approached IBM Research with the problem of how to build segmentation-based models more effectively so as to maximize predictive accuracy. The IBM Advanced Targeted Marketing-Single Events™ (IBM ATM-SM™) solution is the result of IBM Research and Fingerhut BI directing their efforts jointly towards solving this problem. This paper presents an evaluation of ATMSE's modeling capabilities using data from Fingerhut's catalog mailings.