A note on multi-step forecasting with functional coefficient autoregressive models

Abstract

This paper presents and evaluates alternative methods for multi-step forecasting using univariate and multivariate functional coefficient autoregressive (FCAR) models. The methods include a simple "plug-in" approach, a bootstrap-based approach, and a multi-stage smoothing approach, where the functional coefficients are updated at each step to incorporate information from the time series captured in the previous predictions. The three methods are applied to a series of U.S. GNP and unemployment data to compare performance in practice. We find that the bootstrap-based approach out-performs the other two methods for nonlinear prediction, and that little forecast accuracy is sacrificed using any of the methods if the underlying process is actually linear. © 2005 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.