On modeling and predicting individual paper citation count over time

Abstract

Evaluating a scientist's past and future potential impact is key in decision making concerning with recruitment and funding, and is increasingly linked to publication citation count. Meanwhile, timely identifying those valuable work with great potential before they receive wide recognition and become highly cited papers is both useful for readers and authors in many regards. We propose a method for predicting the citation counts of individual publications, over an arbitrary time period. Our approach explores paper-specific covariates, and a point process model to account for the aging effect and triggering role of recent citations, through which papers lose and gain their popularity, respectively. Empirical results on the Microsoft Academic Graph data suggests that our model can be useful for both prediction and interpretability.